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Iraq's elections: The vote is set and the troop drawdown is on track
Thursday, November 12, 2009

The Iraqi parliament moved the ball forward on both national elections and U.S. troop withdrawal by passing an election law on Sunday.

For better or worse, the administration of President Barack Obama had tied its drawdown -- from 120,000 troops to 50,000 by next August -- to the Iraqis successfully holding elections in January. They were initially set for Jan. 16 but may be moved to later in the month because of the late passage of the law. The linkage between the elections and the U.S. pullout was a potentially disastrous invitation to various ethnic and political elements to try to delay both.

Prior to the U.S. invasion and occupation in 2003, Iraq had been ruled from its independence in 1932 by the Sunni Muslim minority, which represents 20 percent of the population. The Shiites and Kurds generally had been excluded from decision-making. With the United States organizing elections based on one person-one vote, the Shiite majority, with 60 percent of the population, became dominant in the government. The Kurds, with the remaining 20 percent, had been favored and protected by the Americans since the Gulf War in 1991.

The Shiites and Kurds are nervous about the U.S. troop withdrawal because of concerns that the Sunnis will attempt a return to the former status quo. On that basis, the two groups had reason to try to pursue their interests through the new election law and thereby delay the elections and the troop withdrawal.

It is bizarre that some Iraqis might want to keep U.S. forces there longer than necessary, given that they are an occupying army, but it seems to be the case. Occupied peoples like the Iraqis are sometimes adept at using foreign armies to further their own interests.

Regardless, after substantial U.S. pressure, the Iraqi parliament passed its election law, and the balloting can go forward. This action is a diplomatic triumph for the Obama administration, saving it from the dangerous linkage. Given all the interests involved, the matter continues to bear close watching.

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First published on November 12, 2009 at 12:00 am