It seems way too early to begin worrying about snow and long-range winter forecasts, but try telling that to people in places like Bradford, Warren, St. Marys and Du Bois.

They were under a winter storm warning that extends to tomorrow morning, with dire predictions of up to a foot of wet, heavy snow in higher elevations that could collapse trees and cause power outages.

Pittsburgh might see some flakes of snow mixing with rain over the next few days, but National Weather Service meteorologist Lee Hendricks said it was unlikely we would break or match the record for earliest measurable snowfall: Oct. 18, in 1972.

Accumulating snow was unlikely anywhere south of northern Butler County, he said. The air and ground here are still too warm for snow to stick.

Tom Kines, an AccuWeather meteorologist who watched the snow fall in State College yesterday, coating grassy areas and even roads on the ridges, said the early flurry of winter weather might not be an omen.

"Most people are concerned with this recent cold spurt that this is a sign of things to come and it's going to be a horrible winter. That's not necessarily true," he said.

By Tuesday, when the National Weather Service forecast calls for 60-degree temperatures and sunshine, we could be fretting about global warming again.

Mr. Kines said current AccuWeather forecasts are for normal or above-normal temperatures in November and "maybe December as well." Rougher weather, if it comes, will be in January and February, as is typical, he said.

AccuWeather's expert long-range forecaster, Joe Bastardi, has said the Pittsburgh area would have a colder-than-normal winter overall. He said the Appalachians could have their snowiest winter in seven years, with up to 100 inches. Whether that drifts back to Pittsburgh was in doubt -- the forecast map puts the city on the line between "normal snowfall" and "cold and snowy."

"Pittsburgh is kind of on the fence," Mr. Kines said. "It will depend on what kind of track the storms take."

Mr. Bastardi said "winter will be centered over an area from Maryland to the Carolinas" with "the stormiest and coldest pattern in recent years."

Pittsburgh gets about 41 inches of snow in a typical winter. Heavier snowfalls have been very rare in recent years. In the past four winters, Pittsburgh has recorded only five snowfalls exceeding 4 inches, and only one exceeding 5 inches.

The last time the city got more than 6 inches was Feb. 16 and 17, 2003, when 14 inches piled up.

For its part, the Old Farmer's Almanac says winter "will bring rapid changes in the weather, from mild to very cold and back to mild again. Temperatures will be slightly below normal, on average, while precipitation will be above normal, with near-normal snowfall ... The snowiest periods will occur in late January, mid-February, and early March."

Mr. Hendricks said to forecast weather beyond 10 to 14 days, "you have to talk in generalities." The National Weather Service outlook for December, January and February says temperatures and precipitation are likely to be normal or below normal.

By next month, he said, those outlooks could change as weather patterns shift.

So keep the snow shovels -- and the sunglasses -- handy.

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