After last year's sickening 3.4 percent drop in holiday retail sales, a mere 1 percent slide this season may not seem so bad. Retailers already have pared their inventory in preparation for a season dominated by list-checking, deal-hunting, practical shoppers.

The shopping forecast comes from the National Retail Federation, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group that calculates spending in the months of November and December -- excluding cars, gas and restaurants -- should hit $437.6 billion. That compares to $441.97 billion in holiday 2008 and $457.75 billion the year before that.

If the predication comes true, it would be the slowest holiday season since 2005, when sales totaled $433.66.

Other forecasters are offering slightly different projections but they generally agree on certain issues: Consumers will be drawn to discount retailers, will buy practical gifts and will stick to the budgets and coupon-clipping ways that have become ingrained over the past year.

Many retailers are braced for it.

"The expectation of another challenging holiday season does not come as news to retailers, who have been experiencing a pullback in consumer spending for over a year," said Tracy Mullen, president and CEO of the retail federation in a prepared statement.

Despite some signs the official recession could be over, the trade group noted continued uncertainty over housing values, jobs and even the stock market have done little to convince consumers that a recovery is solidly in place.

Still, "I think we were a little bit surprised that those numbers didn't come in worse," said James Russo, vice president, global consumer insights at the New York-based Nielsen Co. That organization last week predicted overall holiday sales would be almost flat this year.

Although it runs its calculations a bit differently than the retail federation, the findings don't conflict. The research company found 85 percent of households planning to spend the same or less this year than last, with a 7 percent increase in the number planning to cut back.

Nielsen found consumers expect to spend more in one category -- gift cards. Mr. Russo said a growing number of shoppers plan to give gift cards to grocery stores as gifts. Talk about practical.

Meanwhile, Wilkes University business professor Anthony L. Liuzzo is sticking to his forecast, made in August, that overall holiday sales will rise 2 percent. "It seems that things are going the way we thought they would," said Dr. Liuzzo. "It's not terrific but it's better than last year."

He agreed with the other observers that retail inventories are tight and he recommended consumers figure out what they want and start shopping long before Thanksgiving. "I think retailers generally are kind of underestimating as a rule," he said, predicting some popular colors of clothing or certain toys could be out of stock early.

But there may be deep discounts on some items for those who wait, according to the National Retail Federation. The group said retail battles for sales in areas such as apparel and electronics could create deflation because of aggressive sales.

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