In the next month, the fate of the state-mandated graduation exams may be determined.

Last week, the final regulation, which was approved by the state board of education on Aug. 13, was transmitted to the Independent Regulatory Review Commission and the House and Senate education committees.

That triggers a timeline for the final series of actions required for the Keystone Exams to take effect.

The commission must act on the measure at its Oct. 22 meeting as long as it has a quorum. The legislative education committees can weigh in up until 24 hours before the commission meets.

The commission can slow down a regulation, but it can't stop it. That power is in the hands of the legislators.

In the last 25 years, there have been only two times that the Legislature has halted a regulation, said Kim Kaufman, executive director of the commission.

Such a regulation would have to be disapproved by at least one education committee, pass a vote on the floors of both bodies and then, if vetoed, have a two-thirds vote to override.

In a recent five-year period, the commission approved 99 percent of the final form regulations submitted to it.

Mr. Kaufman noted that not all of those regulations had the level of public interest that this one does. He said the commission is continuing to review public comments, which still can be submitted. More information is available on the commission Web site, www.irrc.pa.us.

If the regulation clears the commission and the two education committees, Mr. Kaufman said the state attorney general will have 30 days to review it, leading to the final step, publication in the Pennsylvania Bulletin.

The latest version of the regulations calls for the state to provide 10 end-of-course exams, beginning with English literature, Algebra 1 and biology in 2010-11, with other English, math, science and social studies subjects being phased in through 2016-17.

The state would ask the federal government to permit the first three to be used to satisfy the No Child Left Behind Act beginning in 2012-13, thus enabling the state to discontinue the Pennsylvania System of School Assessment exams in 11th grade.

The tests would be administered to all public school districts in Pennsylvania, including charter schools. But the requirement would not apply to private or parochial schools.

For graduation purposes, school districts would need to count the exams for at least one-third of a student's final grade or districts could use other options, including validated local assessments or Advanced Placement exams instead. Districts also could set up a project for students who failed exams.

The education secretary would be able to waive any provisions on a case-by-case basis for "good cause," such as serious illness, death in the family or transfer from out-of-state in the senior year.

Despite the odds, opponents have not given up hope of defeating the measure through the commission or in the Legislature.

"It's not over by any means," said Kim Geyer, an opponent and Mars Area school board president.

Joseph Torsella, chairman of the state board of education, however, said he is "very much" optimistic the Keystone Exams will clear the final hurdles.

The commission -- a five-member body appointed by legislators and the governor -- is charged with determining whether a regulation is "in the public interest," is consistent with legislative intent and uses proper statutory authority.

When it reviewed an earlier version of the bill, the commission in July wrote of several concerns, including whether the Legislature was on board and whether the exams would increase the dropout rate. Mr. Torsella said he believes changes since then have addressed those questions.

Ms. Geyer holds out hope that a House resolution signed by 160 representatives will influence the commission. That resolution has not moved out of the House Education Committee.

"HR 456 demonstrates strongly and clearly that there is no legislative intent for the governor's regulation," she said.

A year ago, the Legislature was so opposed to graduation exams that it put a one-year moratorium on promulgation.

But after changes were made in the initial plan, the Senate Education Committee voted in favor of it, and the House Education Committee gave a negative recommendation to a Senate measure against the exams.

James Roebuck, D-Philadelphia, chair of the House Education Committee, last week said he did not know when the committee will meet again to consider HR456 and said the fall legislative scheduled hasn't been decided.

"I have talked to some of the folks who have come to me about concerns. When I talk to them, some of them don't seem to have a clear understanding of what the Keystone Exams are," he said.

Mr. Roebuck said that he is "generally supportive" of the Keystone Exams and encourages assessing student progress at an earlier age.

Mr. Torsella said he thinks the latest version of the exams addresses the issues in the resolution.

Year by year, the Legislature still will have to provide the money to develop and give the Keystone Exams as well as the model curriculum and diagnostic tools that are planned.

The regulatory analysis form submitted to the commission puts the costs through fiscal year 2014 at $145 million, with total contract costs of $176 million.

The form lists other costs, such as $200,000 annually to develop and score the alternative project-based assessments and $150,000 to validate the Keystone Exams for use under the No Child Left Behind Act.

The form also notes some savings, including $5 million a year, beginning in 2012-13, when the 11th-grade PSSA is replaced.

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