One team's dream of a Big East championship will almost certainly come to an end tonight when No. 20 Pitt plays No. 19 Cincinnati.
The Panthers (7-2, 3-1) and Bearcats (8-2, 4-1), along with West Virginia (6-3, 3-1), sit at the top of the conference standings, and all three are in position to win the league title and gain an automatic BCS bowl bid. The Mountaineers have less control of their destiny because of a loss to Cincinnati, but they can still guarantee themselves at least a first-place tie at 6-1 (in the conference) if they win out.
That's why tonight's game at Nippert Stadium is probably more accurately defined as a Big East elimination game than a Big East championship game.
"We all know it is a big game and there is a lot at stake," said Pitt fullback Conredge Collins. "But at the same time, it isn't our last game and we have a few more big ones after it so we need to be focused on winning this one."
Although the losing team will not be mathematically eliminated from title consideration, it would need so many things to go right in order to have a chance.
And that's especially true with Pitt because the Bearcats have only one remaining Big East game -- against hapless Syracuse -- and the worse Cincinnati could do if it wins tonight is finish with two conference losses -- leaving Pitt relying on the Orange to pull a major upset on the road to be in a first-place tie.
But even if the Bearcats lose to Syracuse after beating Pitt, the Panthers would need the right combination of teams to finish 5-2 because they'd lose a tiebreaker in any head-to-head situation with Cincinnati.
Conversely, Cincinnati's road is fairly simple -- beat Pitt tonight and Syracuse next Saturday.
The Bearcats are favored in both home games so it is clear they are in a good position to get to their first BCS game.
The Panthers have a similarly easy mathematical formula -- win tonight against Cincinnati, then beat West Virginia and Connecticut over the next two weeks.
The road after tonight's game for Pitt is much tougher, which is why if the Panthers lose to the Bearcats, their chances of winning the Big East are somewhere between very slim and none.
Beyond the easy thing happening in the Big East race -- the winner of tonight's game winning the rest of its conference games -- there are a number of other scenarios in which any one of five teams -- Pitt, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Connecticut and West Virginia -- could win the Big East championship.
The Pitt-Cincinnati game has another prize on the line -- the River City Rivalry trophy -- and while it might seem like a contrived "rivalry game" driven by marketing gurus, the players insist it is real because of the familiarity among the players.
The Bearcats recruit heavily in Ohio, the Panthers have a roster loaded with Pennsylvania kids and the two states area constantly trying to claim superiority in high school football.
Pitt tackle Jason Pinkston said that it is for this reason that the Pitt-Cincinnati matchup will always be a little nastier than the rest of their Big East games -- with the exception of West Virginia.
"It is always been an important game because it is Pennsylvania vs. Ohio and that goes back to the Big 33 game," Pinkston said of the high school all-star game between Pennsylvania and Ohio. "So this game is always a big game, but obviously, I'd say this one is the biggest yet."
Matchup: No. 20 Pitt (7-2, 3-1 Big East) vs. No. 19 Cincinnati (8-2, 4-1), 7:15 p.m. today, Nippert Stadium (35,000), Cincinnati. Bearcats favored by 6.
TV/Radio: ESPN2; WWSW-FM (94.5), WBGG-AM (970) and Sirius Channel 123.
Pitt: Is 7-0 against Cincinnati, including 2-0 on the road in the series. ... Has won five consecutive road games, dating to last season. ... Has scored in 35 of 37 trips into the red zone, including 23 touchdowns. The Panthers are tied for first in the NCAA in red-zone efficiency (95 percent).
Cincinnati: Coach Brian Kelly is rumored to be the top candidate for the job as head coach at Tennessee. Kelly has a 19-5 record in two seasons with the Bearcats. ... Cincinnati is expected to wear red jerseys for the first time since 2003. ... 6-6-1 when ranked and 5-2 vs. ranked opponents under Kelly.
Hidden stat: Pitt has blocked seven kicks, most since 1987 when the Panthers set a school record with eight.