Pitt's 27-17 loss to Bowling Green of the Mid-American Conference Saturday suddenly has turned this season of promise into potentially a disaster, particularly if the Panthers can't get some things corrected on offense in a hurry.
There are very few light touches on the schedule left and losing a game to a team they are supposed to beat means getting to the magic number of seven wins (to lock up a bowl bid) has become a much more difficult task.
After a game Saturday against Buffalo -- a game that no longer looks like a certain win -- the schedule gets considerably tougher for the Panthers. Pitt will get a week off then face Iowa before a three-game road trip to Syracuse, South Florida and Navy.
All four of those games looked winnable before the season -- but considering the way the Panthers played Saturday, a poor start is a possibility now.
"We have to regroup, we have to look at our mistakes, we have to move on," Pitt middle linebacker Scott McKillop said. "The season isn't over, we have 12 football games and we've played one. But we have to play better, and as the leader of the defense, I have to take responsibility for this and I have to make more plays to help us win."
It is admirable that McKillop was a stand-up guy and took the blame for the loss, but this defeat had very little to do with the defense, which played reasonably well.
Yes, the defense failed to make some big plays -- like a dropped interception by Eric Thatcher that would have prevented a touchdown -- and missed a few tackles, but the bottom line is the defense held the high-powered Falcons offense to 254 total yards (150 fewer than they averaged last year) and only 2.3 yards per rushing attempt.
And while Bowling Green (which also averaged 31 points per game last year) scored 27 points -- seven came after Bowling Green recovered a fumble on the Panthers' 11 and seven came on a 52-yard drive that was set up by a fumble by LeSean McCoy.
This loss lies squarely on the shoulders of the offense, which produced only three points in the final 40 minutes and was shut out after the half. Those statistics are troubling, but are even worse considering the Falcons gave up 63 points to Tulsa the previous time they took the field (in the GMAC bowl Jan. 6).
It was the kind of offensive output that plagued the Panthers last season -- but last season they had to play two freshmen quarterbacks.
That wasn't the case Saturday, yet the offensive game plan was every bit as conservative as many last year, lacked imagination and, most importantly, failed to put any pressure on the Falcons' defense.
For instance, the most explosive receiver in Pitt training camp was freshman Jonathan Baldwin, and he showed that again Saturday when he blew past the Falcons' defense on a deep pass.
But Baldwin played sparingly and had only one other ball thrown his way.
Then there was Greg Cross, the athletic junior-college quarterback who was recruited to pump some life into the offense and be a change-of-pace player. He had a package of plays drawn up for him and is an exciting player and was expected to contribute.
Cross, and his spread-formation package, stayed on the sideline the entire game.
And McCoy, who clearly wasn't on his game, rushed 23 times for 71 yards and also had a critical fumble. McCoy was replaced early in the game by LaRod Stephens-Howling, who is quicker, and Stephens-Howling produced 71 yards on only seven carries -- but he only had one carry after the half.
But beyond the players, Panthers offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh didn't have a great day either, as the offense was too predictable and didn't take many shots down the field. That's especially questionable play-calling considering Bowling Green coach Gregg Brandon admitted they basically were daring the Panthers to throw the ball over the defense the entire game.
"We knew we had to shut down [LeSean McCoy] in order to have a chance to win," Brandon said. "But our defensive strategy wasn't to use four down linemen and three linebackers to try and do it. We blitzed almost every single play."
One game certainly does not make or break a season, but in a season as critical as this one to the Panthers, what happened Saturday was not a good sign that this season is destined to be much different than the past three.
That is particularly true of the offense, which is no longer able to blame its struggles on inexperience or lack of talent.