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Election 2008
Rendell's endorsement seen as a plus for Clinton
Friday, March 21, 2008
Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., right, reacts to Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell during a campaign stop at Millersville University's Pucillo Gymnasium in Millersville, Pa., on Tuesday.

HARRISBURG -- Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell has won two gubernatorial elections by wide margins, makes frequent trips around the state handing out large checks to municipal officials and is well-known for his campaign fund-raising prowess.

Now he's thrown his political weight behind Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, which has to give her a major advantage over rival Sen. Barack Obama in Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, right?

No doubt about it, say many political pundits and legislators.

"In a Pennsylvania Democratic primary, having Edward G. Rendell with you is pretty darn good," said Harrisburg political consultant Charlie Gerow. "You'd certainly rather have him on your side than not on your side."

"If you have a well-established elected official who knows the territory and the politics of the state, of course that's an asset to a campaign," said Christopher Borick, a professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

On the other hand, Mr. Borick added, politics isn't what it was in the late 19th and much of the 20th century.

In those days, "the word of the ward boss filtered down to tell people how to vote," with people's jobs often depending on how they voted.

"It doesn't work that way any more," he said. "Not many people sit down at the end of the day and say 'I'll vote for some candidate because my favorite governor likes him or her.'"

Mr. Rendell does give some pluses to Mrs. Clinton, analysts say, including:

• His continuing popularity in the city of Philadelphia, where he was mayor for most of the 1990s, and where, he says, many people still greet him on the street as "mayor." That factor should, to some degree, counteract the racial advantage that Mr. Obama will likely enjoy among the city's large African-American population. She has another advantage in Philadelphia: the endorsement of popular new Mayor Michael Nutter, who is black.

• Mr. Rendell's spillover popularity in four growing suburban counties around Philadelphia: Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware, where the numbers of Democrats have been increasing.

• The enthusiasm he exudes just being out on the campaign trail and his ability to tap deep pockets for campaign cash. He spent record amounts on his own campaigns in 2002 and 2006.

Supporters of Mr. Obama generally concede that Mrs. Clinton has started out with an edge in Pennsylvania, such as high name recognition from the 1990s, when she was first lady, and the high visibility of her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Also, her father, Hugh Rodham, grew up in Scranton and she spent summers in that area as a child.

She's also popular with senior citizens, a huge voting bloc in Pennsylvania, and with blue-collar workers and labor union members.

But Obama supporters agree with Mr. Borick that times have changed and people don't vote for a candidate just because some big-time pol tells them to.

"This Pennsylvania primary won't be won by top-down, machine-style politics," said state Rep. Joshua Shapiro, a 30-something Democrat from Montgomery County who's backing Mr. Obama.

"It will be won by a bottom-up effort," he said, adding that that is well under way with younger volunteers and college students out on the streets for Mr. Obama.

University of Pittsburgh political communications professor Gerald Shuster said many young people 18 to 25 are strongly behind Mr. Obama.

"I've never seen students more energized about an election," he said.

Yet Mr. Shuster said that barring some huge political disaster -- akin to the blunder that felled former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer -- he thinks Mrs. Clinton should win fairly easily on April 22, by a margin of 8 to 12 percentage points.

Former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel, an Obama supporter, said it was too soon for such predictions, since there's still more than a month to go before the primary and "the air war" hasn't started yet.

"These are two well-funded machines," Mr. Singel said. "It's an uphill climb [for Mr. Obama] for sure, but I think many people will reserve judgment until they absorb the media campaign," meaning TV, radio and newspaper ads, which usually run much closer to the actual election.

Another Obama supporter, state Rep. Jake Wheatley, D-Hill District, thinks his candidate will do well among students and in urban areas -- not just Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but smaller towns like Harrisburg, York, Lancaster and Erie.

He doesn't think Mrs. Clinton will get too many black votes.

"It'll be very hard for someone to convince African Americans not to vote for a deserving, well-spoken and well-qualified candidate such as Obama," Mr. Wheatley said.

Even Mr. Rendell, in an uncharacteristically modest mood last week, was playing down his clout as kingmaker.

"I think endorsements by any political leader are highly overvalued by the media," he told reporters on a teleconference call. "Sen. [Ted] Kennedy and Sen. [John] Kerry demonstrated that loud and clear for voters."

He was referring to the fact that the two big-name Democratic senators endorsed Mr. Obama in the Massachusetts Democratic primary in February, but Mrs. Clinton won.

"Having a governor on board is helpful, but it's not determinative [of the outcome]," Mr. Rendell said. "I don't think there's any magic" in a big-name endorsement.

An influential governor can help in another way, by "providing cover" for city and county leaders, who may have been wavering.

After Mr. Rendell opted for Mrs. Clinton, two prominent southwestern Pennsylvania pols, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato and Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl, jumped aboard Mrs. Clinton's train.

Of course, Mr. Onorato's backing may bring some negatives with it, since many people in Allegheny County are angry at him for enacting a 10 percent tax on poured alcoholic drinks, and are demanding he find some other way to raise funds for mass transit.

While Mrs. Clinton has more big names than Mr. Obama, the senator from Illinois does have some fairly prominent Democrats in his corner. One of the best known, at least in Pittsburgh, is former Steelers star Franco Harris.

Democratic House members working for Mr. Obama, besides Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Wheatley, include Reps. Joe Preston of East Liberty, Tim Mahoney of Fayette County, Dan Surra of Elk and Mike Sturla of York.

Others include U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy from suburban Philadelphia, and two senators from Eastern Pennsylvania, Senate Democratic leader Bob Mellow of Scranton and Sen. Lisa Boscola of Lehigh.

First published on March 21, 2008 at 12:00 am
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