Tonight the Pitt Panthers will play host to West Virginia in the first of two basketball editions of "The Backyard Brawl". Of course, I'm not sure what I am looking forward to more, the game or reading all the signs and listening to all of the -- how do we say it -- "creative" cheers?, coming from the student section, also known as the "Oakland Zoo." I'm not a betting man but if I were I'd say odds are very good that there will be more than at least one reference to the score 13-9 and more than few referencing the fact that West Virginia has become a farm system for Michigan coaches ...
Beyond that, this game is a biggie for both teams for different reasons, so here is a breakdown of it:
For the Mountaineers, it is a must win unless, of course, they have their hearts set on defending their NIT championship from a year ago. West Virginia has been sliding in terms of its NCAA tournament profile and needs a big win to solidfy their place in a very crowded field of Big East teams. A win here probably puts them in the category of "as long as there is not a collapse, they are in the NCAA tournament."
Pitt, on the other hand, needs to just start playing better than it has and playing more consistently than it has. Pitt hasn't played a complete game, probably since Georgetown, and could use the confidence boost it would get from handling business at home - which it should - against a quality opponent.
What are the keys to winning? (That is beyond the normal don't turn it over, stay out of foul trouble, make shots???.)
West Virginia will win if: (1) Alex Ruoff shoots the 3-ball well. When that happens it opens up the rest of the floor on offense for the Mountaineers wing players to create offense and it also creates opportunities for the post players to get some easy lay-ups; (2) Joe Alexander plays within himself. Alexander is a talented player no doubt and has star potential. But he's been hampered with a groin injury as of late and his shot selection is too often one that can only be appreciated by old school gunners like World B. Free and (3) they get something, anything at all defensively, out of their four and five position and thus control DaJuan Blair.
It is a bad sign for the Mountaineers if: Ruoff and point guard Darris Nichols can't connect on some early 3-pointers - both have been a bit streaky this year and if they get off to bad starts it could signal another 1-for-22 performance (which is what the Mountaineers were from the 3-point line in a recent loss to Cincinnati).
Pitt will win if: (1) DaJuan Blair and Sam Young are given the keys to the car and told to drive it. Simply put the Mountaineers don't have anyone who can defensively match up with either, especially Blair, and teams that have beaten WVU have done so by physically overpowering them. (2) Defend the perimeter. Again, John Beilein is gone, his players are not and they still can shoot the ball well, especially when they get hot and (3) The Panthers guards aren't put in a position where they have to win the game late. As long as Levance Fields is hurt, there isn't a true veteran point guard to lead the team down the stretch.
It is a bad sign for the Panthers if: West Virginia's, ahem, "starting" center Jamie Smalligan plays more than, say, 18 minutes. Smalligan starts and then is quickly benched the first time he makes a mistake in post defense or misses a rebound - which is usually about the second or third possession of the game. That explains why he averages only 12 minutes per game but if he plays more it is because he is playing well on defense and rebounding and making himself a factor. If that's the case, it could mean a long night for the Panthers whose one clear advantage is in the paint.