Matt Freed, Post-Gazette Aaron Gray is generally regarded as the No. 5 or 6 center in the draft behind Greg Oden of Ohio State, Yi Jianlian of China, Spencer Hawes of Washington and Sean Williams of Boston College. Click photo for larger image. NBA DRAFT - Tomorrow What: 2007 NBA draft When: 7 p.m.. Where: Madison Square Garden, New York. TV: ESPN.

Remember Aaron Gray's 1-for-13, three-point performance against Georgetown in the Big East championship game? Or the NCAA tournament game against UCLA in which he fared only slightly better?

Gray's last few games in college basketball did not help convince anyone that he was worthy of being a first-round draft choice in the NBA draft tomorrow. Then again, even if Gray had a great finish to his career, it is unlikely that he would have moved into contention for a spot in the lottery.

That's what NBA draft experts are saying about Pitt's All-American and his immediate future on the eve of the draft. No matter what Gray did in those big games on the national stage, he would be in the same position today -- a borderline late first- or second-round pick.

"He has established a body of work as a player over time," ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas said. "That's what the NBA people will look at. They'll look at what he did over his four years."

Gray has an asset that NBA teams covet -- size. And that alone stands to make him a quality living in the NBA for years if he can stay healthy. He just won't be one of those players who could retire off his first contract.

There is little intrigue about Gray and what he will bring to the NBA. Scouts have been to every Pitt game the past two seasons. And with Pitt being on national television about every other game the past couple of years, NBA general managers have more than enough videotape to have made a determination about him.

Consequently -- unless there is some NBA general manager who secretly believes Gray is the next Bill Walton -- the consensus is that he'll be a backup in the league, a player who can provide quality defense in the post against the league's other traditional centers and possibly someone who can develop into a decent offensive player in time.

"He's diligent, has good work habits and is smart," said NBA draft expert Chris Ekstrand, who does mock drafts for SI.com. "He'll figure out his niche in the NBA. He'll work at it and do what the coaches ask of him. Coaches aren't dumb. They know his strengths. They'll put him in positions to succeed. I don't know of anyone who believes he can't play in the league. Now it's a matter of getting him in a style and on a team where he can succeed."

There was a time not too long ago when Gray would have been a definite first-round selection. Seven-foot centers with his skills are few and far between, but teams have shied away from using first-round picks on traditional centers in recent years in favor of players who are more versatile.

"You have quicker and more multidimensional athletes who can play more than one position and play different spots on the floor," Ekstrand said. "Look at a guy like Al Horford. He's athletic enough to guard a guy who can shoot a 15-foot jump shot. These guys are getting noticed more and more.

"But there are always going to be a few great centers, and you need someone to defend those players. When you're playing against Shaq, you need someone with that size. If you don't have someone like that, it's like a mosquito on the back of a water buffalo.

Gray has real center size, and he's not as unathletic as people are making him out to be. He'll be able to hold down his position on the block. There are a finite number of people on earth who can do that and play in the NBA."

Gray, a late-bloomer who came into his own during his junior and seniors seasons at Pitt, is generally regarded as the No. 5 or 6 center in the draft behind Greg Oden of Ohio State, Yi Jianlian of China, Spencer Hawes of Washington and Sean Williams of Boston College.

Those players are pretty solid locks to be taken in the first round. Gray is in the next tier of prospects along with Marc Gasol of Spain and Kyrylo Fesenko of Ukraine.

As opposed to Jianlian, Gasol or Fesenko -- who are more high-risk, high-reward -- Gray is a known commodity. As a result, he likely will be a safe pick for a team somewhere in the second round.

"If Aaron was coming out of a place like Duquesne, his stock would be higher because there would be more intrigue," said Fran Fraschilla, a college basketball and NBA draft analyst for ESPN. "But everyone has seen Aaron play so much over the past few years that there is very little intrigue left. His game has been dissected over and over. I just got back from Europe. People always make a big deal about the international guys because there's intrigue. No one has seen them. I'll bet there have been NBA scouts at every one of Aaron's game the past four years.

"[Gray] can play a long time because he has size. The NBA is a long season, and it's a war of attrition. He has terrific hands and a nice touch. He has four years of experience and he's played in big games. Those are all positives.

"But I worry about his lateral mobility and his ability to guard on the perimeter. And because he played for four years and had good coaching, I wonder if the NBA people worry about what upside is left. There might be someone who is less accomplished but who has more athleticism they might want to take a chance on."