Former Pitt center Aaron Gray has a chance to break a long drought for the University of Pittsburgh later this week. Gray, the 7-foot All-American who led the Panthers in scoring and rebounding the past two seasons, could be taken in the first round of the NBA draft Thursday.

	The draft What: NBA draft. When: 7 p.m. Thursday. TV: ESPN

If that happens, Gray would make history as the first Pitt player to be selected in the first round since Ben Howland and Jamie Dixon came to town. The Panthers last had a player drafted in the first round in 1999 -- ironically the season before Howland and Dixon arrived -- when Vonteego Cummings was selected with the 26th overall pick by the Indiana Pacers.

Since then, 12 of the other 16 schools in the Big East have had at least one player drafted in the first round. Connecticut has had eight, including a record four last year. Syracuse has had three and Notre Dame two.

Only Pitt, West Virginia, Providence and Big East newcomer South Florida have not had a player taken in the first round in the past seven years. Even Big East bottom-feeders such as Rutgers (Quincy Douby in 2006), Seton Hall (Eddie Griffin in 2001) and St. John's (Erick Barkley) have had players deemed worthy of being a first-round selections.

And that's only the Big East. Here are some of the other programs that have produced a first-round pick since 1999: Northeastern Community College, Washington Union, Western Carolina, Hofstra, SMU and Central Michigan, not to mention Bradley, Xavier, Minnesota and New Mexico.

	The No. 1s Pitt has had six first-round draft choices in the pro draft. Will Aaron Gray join this list Thursday night? (*-ABA) Billy Knight -- 1974 Team: Indiana -- No. 6-* Career: 1974-85 with Pacers (ABA), Braves, Celtics, Kings and Spurs. Second to Pete Maravich for 1977 NBA scoring title (26.6 ppg) and averaged 16.9 in career. Three-time All-Star. Mel Bennett -- 1975 Team: Virginia -- n/a-* Career: 1975-82 with Squires (ABA), Pacers, Jazz and Cavaliers. Averaged 12.1 ppg and 7 rpg as rookie with Squires before ABA/NBA merger. Charles Smith -- 1988 Team: Philadelphia -- No. 3 Career: 1988-98 with Clippers, Knicks and Spurs. Best years were four years with Clippers where he averaged about 20 ppg. Jerome Lane -- 1988 Team: Denver -- No. 23 Career: 1988-93 with Nuggets, Bucks, Pacers and Cavaliers. Averaged 9.3 rpg for Nuggets in 1990-91. Averaged 5.8 for career. Eric Mobley -- 1994 Team: Milwaukee -- No. 18 Career: 1994-97 with Bucks and Grizzlies. Averaged 3.9 ppg and 3.1 rpg in 113 games. Vonteego Cummings -- 1999 Team: Indiana -- No. 26 Career: 1999-2002 with Warriors and 76ers. Draft-day trade from Pacers to Warriors. Averaged 9.4 ppg as rookie with Warriors.

All of which means what, exactly?

Pitt has thrived without NBA players for the past eight years. The Panthers have become a yearly contender for the Big East championship and a staple in the NCAA tournament. But there is the theory that the Panthers cannot get to the next level -- beyond the Sweet 16 and to a Final Four-- without an elite high school prospect or two. The only problem is, most of those types of players want to see a track record of sending players on to the NBA.

College basketball coaches will use anything against a competing coach on the recruiting trail, and Pitt's lack of first-rounders makes Dixon an easy target.

"Knowing my former brethren, it's definitely used against them in recruiting," said former St. John's coach Fran Fraschilla, now a college basketball and NBA draft analyst for ESPN. "But it's a bad rap. Pitt has made a living on guys who have overachieved at the Big East level. Recruits should see that. If anything, if I'm a good player, I want to go somewhere where you get better. And Pitt is a place where that happens."

Jay Bilas, who also does college basketball and NBA draft analysis for ESPN, believes recruits are smart enough to see through such recruiting tactics. And even if they do not, he said Pitt does just fine without the elite recruits.

"Just because a player sneaks into the first round doesn't mean he's a player," Bilas said. "What would you rather have? The first-round pick in your media guide or the Big East championship banner?"

Bilas has a point. Since 2001, Pitt has the best winning percentage of any team in the Big East. The Panthers are 162-41 overall and 71-25 in league play. The next closest team is Connecticut with 153 wins overall and 68 in conference play.

Pitt also has made six consecutive NCAA appearances and four trips to the Sweet 16.

That doesn't mean Dixon does not want to coach a first-round pick or land top 25 recruits. He certainly does. It's just not high on his checklist for having a successful program.

Gray is considered a late first or early second-round pick on most of the mock drafts that are circulating on the Internet. Gray had a good showing at the NBA predraft camp in early June and has continued to impress at individual workouts.

Dixon speaks regularly with NBA personnel about Gray.

"Throughout the year he was a first-round pick," Dixon said. "I think he's still there. But a lot of times it depends on a team's need and how a player fits into a system. I think the thing he has going for him is that he improved consistently for four years in a row. And that's going to continue. That's what I tell all the NBA people."

Dixon said having a Pitt player selected in the first round would fill a hole in his coaching resume, but he does not believe the lack of a first-round selection during his tenure has been a hindrance in his recruiting or ability to put a winning team on the floor.

"It would mean a lot to me, first off," Dixon said. "And it would show a lot about Aaron and the way he has worked. But it's all about being in the NBA for a long time. It's not about where you get drafted. We've had two guys who couldn't play in the NBA because injuries curtailed their careers."

Dixon is speaking of Brandin Knight and Chris Taft, the only Pitt players under Howland and Dixon who have played in the league. Knight, who did not get drafted, played one game in the NBA before sustaining a career-ending injury in 2004. Taft, a second-round selection in 2005, played 17 games for the Golden State Warriors in the 2005-06 season but back problems have not allowed him to get back to the league.

Dixon has come close to signing top prospects in the recent past. Michael Beasley had Pitt second behind only Kansas State this past year. Herb Pope verbally committed to Pitt a few years ago before deciding to play at New Mexico State a few months back.

The truth is, Pitt is flourishing without elite recruits, and those who follow the game expect that to continue as long as Dixon is the coach.

"Look at a guy like Brandin Knight," Fraschilla said. "He was the second choice for a lot of schools. People [in Pittsburgh] are spoiled by the success because they do it with second-line guys. When you're talking about Pittsburgh and recruiting, you have to consider that that's one of the only places in the Big East where you don't have a recruiting base.

"I think Pitt has over-achieved actually. It would help if they got that elite player, but it's not as easy when you're at a place like Pittsburgh or West Virginia. Look at a guy like Terrelle Pryor. He's the best prospect in the area, but he's also the No. 1 quarterback in the country. That's called bad luck."