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Stats Geek: Is Pirates' strong finish just a mirage?
Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Even if it doesn't count for much, this has a quirky appeal:

Post-All Star NL Central
Pirates 33-27
St. Louis 31-29
Houston 28-31
Cincinnati 28-32
Chicago 27-35
Milwaukee 23-36

Taking the fizz out of the Mets' plans for a pennant-clinching party in PNC Park, making Pedro Martinez go teary-eyed in the dugout, sending thousands of New Yorkers home with faces longer than Mr. Ed's -- that makes for a nice weekend in an otherwise bleak summer.

Winning 33 of 60 likewise beats taking 30 of 90, which is what the Pirates managed before the break. But a glance at the real standings shows two good months do not a season make.

So is this a genuine turnaround or a mirage after 14 years of wandering the baseball desert? The team has clinched its first winning home record in PNC Park, and should have its first winning record after the All-Star break since 1992, but does any of that foreshadow a winning record next season?

Yes and no. The pitching might be good enough if the Pirates can pick up a league-average starter this winter, but the offense is not nearly ready for prime time.

The Pirates have fewer hits, doubles, triples, home runs and walks than opponents since the break. They've been outscored, 276-242. They've had the fourth lowest earned run average (4.13) in the NL in that time, but they've also scored the fewest runs in baseball.

They're winning because their record in one-run games has gone from 9-25 to 14-3, and that's not sustainable. The Pirates won't often win a series when they score only 11 runs in three games, much less sweep it.

They need a left-handed power hitter, so the first five spots in the order will look like the following in 2007. I'm including career batting averages, on-base averages and slugging averages as reasonable guesses for next year's production.

Chris Duffy .279/.337/.363
Freddy Sanchez 311/.350/.426
Jason Bay 292/.389/.549
Lefty McThump
Xavier Nady 269/.327/.430

With the storied McThump playing first base or right field, and Nady playing wherever McThump does not, the Pirates would score more runs. But can the Pirates find a right-handed veteran starting pitcher and a left-handed power bat?

General manager Dave Littlefield tamped down the hope last weekend.

"The desire is there," Littlefield said. "We have the dollars. Generally, though, [big free agents] have gone to teams that have won. So our biggest thing is to win. You have to win first."

That's not entirely true. Pricey free agents have gone to Baltimore and Toronto despite those teams' locations in a division owned by the Yankees and Red Sox. Also, despite no winning season since 1993, the Tigers acquired Ivan Rodriguez, then Magglio Ordonez and then Kenny Rogers to turn themselves around.

None of those Tigers came cheap, despite their ages and health issues. So maybe Littlefield's comment was another hint the Pirates will trade to get what they need. Who goes?

With Sanchez's ability to play the middle infield, the obvious move would be to trade either shortstop Jack Wilson or second baseman Jose Castillo and let Jose Bautista take Sanchez's place at third. Neither Castillo nor Wilson alone necessarily fetches a big hitter, but one might be packaged with a pitcher. If you're another team's general manager, which infielder would you want?

Castillo, 25, is entering his arbitration years and should make at least his first million, and Wilson, 28, is signed through 2009 at an average annual salary of $6.5 million. The club has an option for 2010 at $8.4 million ($600,000 buyout), and Wilson has a limited no-trade clause that kicks in next year, when he will have the right to choose six teams to which he cannot be dealt.

Both players are hitting pretty close to their career averages, each a shade below what the average player at his position is hitting. That's where the similarity ends.

Castillo is playing like a man circling the drain, going 4 for 45 in September and having no strong month since his phenomenal May.

While Wilson has slipped some defensively, he remains an above average shortstop by most measures. Castillo is near the bottom among second basemen.

Either one should be available for the right slugger, but the strongest Pirates team would have Wilson at shortstop. He could move to eighth in the batting order if a power bat arrived.

This plan relies on Bautista, 25, regaining his hitting stroke. Unlike so many Pirates, Bautista seems aware of a concept known as the strike zone, so I have hopes he'll find his way.

First published on September 19, 2006 at 12:00 am
Brian O'Neill can be reached at boneill@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1947.