Let's cut right to the chase. These four teams will leave Heinz Field with WPIAL championship trophies Nov. 19:

Central Catholic, Thomas Jefferson, Greensburg Central Catholic and Rochester.

At least, that's what The Fumbler believes. Should you listen to him? Maybe with one ear, because he's about 50 percent in this championship predictions stuff.

Since The Fumbler began picking games for the Post-Gazette, he has correctly picked the winners at the start of the playoffs 23 of 48 times.

But The Fumbler enters the playoffs on a down note. Last week, he was only 50-16 (.758 percentage). He lost 16 games only one other time this season.

Here are his thoughts on this weekend's first-round WPIAL playoff games. All games are at 7:30 tonight unless noted otherwise.

Class AAAA

Latrobe (5-4) vs. Central Catholic (8-1) at North Allegheny --The Fumbler has a four-letter word to describe the outcome of this one: U-G-L-Y. Central Catholic will win its ninth consecutive WPIAL playoff game Winner: Central Catholic.

Bethel Park (6-3) at Gateway (6-3) -- This is one of the best first-round matchups. Many expected Gateway to be one of the best teams in Class AAAA this season. At least, the Gators will get to the quarterfinals. Winner: Gateway.

North Allegheny (5-4) at Woodland Hills (7-2) -- The Wolvarena could be a muddy mess from all the rain this week. That might help North Allegheny deal better with Woodland Hills' speed. But North Allegheny will still have to deal with a first-round loss for the second year in a row. Winner: Woodland Hills.

Baldwin (3-6) at Upper St. Clair (8-1) -- Let's be blunt. Upper St. Clair coach Jim Render gets his 300th career win and Baldwin loses its ninth first-round game in a row. Winner: Upper St. Clair.

Penn-Trafford (3-6) at North Hills (7-2) -- Penn-Trafford quarterback Tyler Huether could cause North Hills' secondary some problems. But Penn-Trafford will lose to North Hills in the first round for the third year in a row. Winner: North Hills.

Shaler (3-6) at McKeesport (7-2) -- McKeesport averages 41 points a game, the best in Class AAAA. The Tigers won't get their average in this contest, but they will get a relatively easy victory. Winner: McKeesport.

Connellsville (5-4) at Mt. Lebanon (6-3) -- Connellsville hasn't won a playoff game since 1994. The trend will continue. Winner: Mt. Lebanon.

Trinity (6-3) vs. Penn Hills (8-1) at Plum -- This game is being played at Plum because of poor field conditions at Penn Hills. But taking away Penn Hills' home-field advantage won't help much. Winner: Penn Hills.

Class AAA

Albert Gallatin (4-5) at West Mifflin (9-0) -- Albert Gallatin made the playoffs for the first time since 1982. And the Colonials' reward is a game against the No. 1-ranked team. Winner: West Mifflin.

Blackhawk (5-4) at Yough (8-1) -- Yough is the Keystone Conference champion and The Fumbler would love to pick the Cougars. But the Keystone has gone 0-4 in the first round four years in a row. Winner: Blackhawk.

Ambridge (3-6) at Franklin Regional (8-1) -- Ambridge has given some pretty good teams a battle this season. But Franklin Regional is better than pretty good. Winner: Franklin Regional.

Uniontown (6-3) at Hampton (8-1) -- Uniontown hasn't won a playoff game since 1965. Since then, the Raiders are 0-6 in the postseason. Make it 0-7 later tonight. Winner: Hampton.

Elizabeth Forward (4-5) at West Allegheny (8-1) -- Elizabeth Forward's past six games have been loss, win, loss, win, loss, win. Can you figure out what's next? Winner: West Allegheny.

Chartiers Valley (5-4) at Hopewell (7-2) -- Chartiers Valley was 5-1 at one point this season, so don't be surprised if the Colts stay close for a while. Chartiers Valley has never won a postseason game, going 0-5 in school history. Winner: Hopewell.

Pine-Richland (8-1) at Mount Pleasant (5-4) -- Pine-Richland has played in four games decided by one point and another decided by two points. This one shouldn't be close, but what if Pine-Richland doesn't fix some defensive problems? Winner: Pine-Richland.

Knoch (3-6) at Thomas Jefferson (8-1) -- This game will prove why there are too many teams in the WPIAL playoffs. Winner: Thomas Jefferson.

Class AA

Laurel (3-6) at South Park (9-0) -- The teams' records tell you all you need to know. Winner: South Park.

Jeannette (8-1) at Mohawk (8-1) -- Mohawk didn't get much respect for winning the Tri-County North Conference. Beating Jeannette will give the Warriors plenty of respect. Winner: Mohawk.

Ford City (7-2) at Center (8-1) -- Can Center bounce back after a loss to Aliquippa last week? Winner: Center.

Mars (5-4) vs. Burrell (8-1) at Highlands -- The Fumbler thinks Burrell is good enough to make it to Heinz Field. But the first step might be a little tougher than people think. Winner: Burrell.

Washington (7-2) at Aliquippa (8-1) -- Washington coach Bill Britton expects to be back after missing four games because of a teachers' strike. It won't be a triumphant return. Winner: Aliquippa.

Beaver (6-3) vs. Seton-LaSalle (7-2) at Peters Township, 8 p.m. -- What gives? Pass-happy Seton-LaSalle won last week attempting only five passes. Winner: Seton-LaSalle.

South Fayette (7-2) at Valley (6-3) -- South Fayette quarterback Andrew DiDonato will move closer to the WPIAL career-passing record. Winner: South Fayette.

Riverside (5-4) at Greensburg Central Catholic (8-0) -- Greensburg Central has won every game by at least 31 points. This will be another blowout. Winner: Greensburg Central Catholic.

Class A

Carmichaels (5-4) at Rochester (9-0) -- Carmichaels will make a first-round exit for the seventh time in the past eight years. Winner: Rochester.

Western Beaver (7-2) at California (6-3) -- Western Beaver has been shut out two of the past three games. But scoring shouldn't be a problem in this game. Winner: Western Beaver.

Riverview (5-4) at Beth-Center (8-1) -- Beth-Center is The Fumbler's sleeper team in Class A. The Bulldogs will get their first playoff win since 1994. Winner: Beth-Center.

Avonworth (4-5) at Springdale (7-2) -- Springdale had lost two in a row before bouncing back for a win last week against Riverview and will have some bounce in its step tonight. Winner: Springdale.

Apollo-Ridge (4-5) at Bishop Canevin (9-0) -- Bishop Canevin shouldn't take Apollo-Ridge lightly after Apollo-Ridge knocked off Clairton last week. Winner: Bishop Canevin.

Chartiers-Houston (5-4) at South Side Beaver (7-2), tomorrow at 1: 30 p.m. -- Chartiers-Houston has lost in the first round three consecutive years. The streak will stretch to four. Winner: South Side Beaver.

Bentworth (5-4) at Mapletown (8-1) -- Mapletown will hold up the Tri-County South Conference pride and running back Ryan Geisel will go over 1,500 yards rushing for the season. Winner: Mapletown.

Jefferson-Morgan (5-4) at Duquesne (8-0), tomorrow at 1:30 p.m. -- Jefferson-Morgan won four of its final five to qualify for the playoffs. The good times won't last. Winner: Duquesne.

Other games

Here are picks of City League games and WPIAL non-playoff games (home teams in capital letters):

TONIGHT -- Oliver over Schenley (Cupples Stadium); Butler over NORWIN; QUAKER VALLEY over Cornell; Kiski Area over INDIANA; NORTH CATHOLIC over West Shamokin.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON -- Westinghouse over Carrick (Cupples Stadium).

TOMORROW NIGHT -- Allderdice over Brashear (Cupples Stadium).