On the second anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, it is still too early to crow about the gains made in that country and whether they have come at a fair price to the United States.
The United States has lost the lives of at least 1,522 servicemen and -women. If the stated reasons for carrying out the invasion -- Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and its links with al-Qaida -- had been affirmed by what U.S. forces found, Americans might have different feelings about the war now.
Another wartime sacrifice made by Americans shows up in guns-or-butter choices. An estimated $200 billion-plus has been spent so far, at a time when Congress is divided by budget struggles that pit cuts in programs such as Medicare and Medicaid that benefit the old and the poor against tax cuts for the rich. Much of that discord would not be necessary if the country weren't spending big sums on the war.
The third U.S. cost comes in the major distortion of its relationship with other countries because of a war that is unpopular even with an ally like the United Kingdom, which has provided troops for the enterprise.
The most recent relationship to be strained involves Turkey. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has blamed the intensity of the Iraqi insurgency on Turkey's refusal to let the United States use that country as a staging area for troops headed into northern Iraq. Damaging relations with Turkey by making it a scapegoat for the U.S. failure to put enough troops in Iraq is the height of political stupidity.
Turkey fought alongside the United States in the Korean War, was a strong NATO ally throughout the Cold War in spite of its nearly 500-mile border with Warsaw Pact countries, and is generally a force for stability and good sense in a region short on those commodities. It is also a democracy and nearly 100 percent Muslim. But Mr. Rumsfeld and the Bush administration are not about to admit a mistake.
The long-term impact of the war on Iraq itself is hard to assess. The United States may have brought democracy to that troubled country. The tyrant Saddam Hussein was deposed and is now in custody. The January elections came off surprisingly well, given the state of insecurity, but the fundamental divisions of the country are now in full play as Iraqis have been unable to form a government seven weeks after the elections.
In the meantime, Iraqi oil production, severely troubled by sabotage, still shows no signs of paying the bills either for the U.S. occupation, an Iraqi security capability or reconstruction of infrastructure. Violence has tailed off a little since the January elections, but the death toll remains high and death is particularly aimed at Iraqis cooperating with the U.S. occupation.
On the global level, the Bush practice of judging a country's merit on the basis of its contribution to the war effort seems to be receding, which is just as well since the number of countries providing troops is dropping steadily. The latest to head for the door is Italy, after U.S. troops killed an Italian officer who was accompanying a freed Italian journalist who had been held hostage.
Two years into the Iraq war, there is much to be desired. In the United States, people are still waiting for President Bush to state a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. forces, when the horrendous financial cost may start to drop as well. In Iraq, the fledgling democracy, the last Bush claim of success, is caught in the coils of ethnic and religious divisions.
All in all, it is hard to see what gain there was for the United States in launching the affair in 2003 or in remaining embroiled in it now.