Tax proposals set forth by President Bush and Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry share one overriding theme: Both would add billions to the swollen federal deficit.
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Both men's plans "have red ink painted all over them," said Robert Strauss, professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University. "They're both making promises to people that they will take care of them on April 15. My concern is the deficit isn't small, and that's a problem."
The cornerstone of Bush's tax initiative is making recent cuts in federal income taxes, capital gains, dividend and estate taxes permanent.
Kerry proposes to keep reductions in income taxes, capital gains and dividend taxes, except for households with incomes over $200,000. He wants to preserve the estate tax, but freeze the top rate and raise the exemption to $2 million next year, up from $1.5 million.
"Sen. Kerry's proposed tax cuts are much more progressive than the president's, providing little or no tax cuts for very high-income taxpayers, but larger tax cuts for lower and middle-income households," economists at the Tax Policy Center have said.
Another key part of the Bush plan is to create two tax-free savings vehicles called Lifetime Savings Accounts and Retirement Savings Accounts, which would have no income restrictions, allowing everyone to contribute up to $5,000 annually in each account. Bush has been pushing the idea for the new accounts for several years, without much interest from Congress.
Critics say the accounts would be expensive and regressive, largely benefiting wealthier citizens who can afford to save the most. Supporters argue that the costs would be paid for by the economic growth stimulated by a surge in savings and investments.
When it comes to taxes on businesses, Kerry proposes eliminating corporate international tax loopholes and the ability of companies to establish off-shore domiciles to escape U.S. taxes. He also wants to end companies' ability to defer paying taxes on foreign earnings, unless the earnings were from plants and services that only serve overseas markets.
Those changes would pay for a 5 percent reduction in the corporate net income tax rate to 33.25 percent from 35 percent, according to Kerry. (Kerry might not have to bother pushing for the cut, however. Legislators are working on a bill, which some hope to pass before the election, that would take an even bigger whack at the corporate rate, reducing it to 32 percent.)
As for Bush, "the president has not articulated what he wants to do with some of the most egregious tax schemes that allow companies overseas to reduce or not pay taxes," CMU's Strauss said.
Both Bush and Kerry have drawn fire for lacking any meaningful changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax.
The AMT has been roundly vilified for unfairly ensnaring increasing numbers of middle-income Americans instead of the millionaires for which it was intended. Projections say 30 million households will face the AMT by 2009, up from 3 million today.
Neglect of the issue is "striking and irresponsible," economists at the Brookings Institution said.
CMU's Strauss believes the ballooning deficit and other pressing budgetary issues may make it harder for either candidate to convince Congress to deliver on their tax promises -- though the record would suggest that, so far, lawmakers have yet to meet a tax cut they didn't like.
Chances of success also will depend on the outcome of congressional elections and whether Republicans or Democrats end up with the majorities.
"I take these tax proposals with a huge grain of salt," Strauss said. "Where is the money going to come from? Sooner or later the deficit, the AMT, Social Security, those big issues will dominate tax policy.
"I think if you were to ask voters if they think either candidate will deliver on their tax proposals, they probably would say no," he said. "We have too much red ink and other budgetary needs."