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April 25, 2008

Last dance

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After today, Early Returns will be on hiatus until the autumn, when we'll start blogging about the November election. Bummer, right? But before the curtain drops, there's still a bit of post-primary analysis left to be done, as Capitolwire points out:

"First, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review offers a story in which U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle, D-Allegheny, said Clinton outworked Obama in Western Pennsylvania, and that Obama still needs to 'demonstrate he can connect with blue-collar, working-class people.' The Patriot-News of Harrisburg has an analysis that contends Obama's problem wasn't so much with white voters as it was with women voters, who put Clinton over the top. But The Philadelphia Inquirer's Annette John-Hall writes in a column today that Gov. Ed Rendell was prophetic when he said some conservative Pennsylvanians may be reluctant to, as John-Hall put it, 'bring themselves to pull the lever for a black man for president.'"

... Some more number-crunching: "The most striking instance of this was Clinton's victory among the elderly. Clinton won the elderly by 46 points in Ohio, but by just 26 in Pennsylvania. According to this hypothesis, what made up the gap is that the elderly constituted 14% of the electorate in Ohio, compared to 22% in Pennsylvania. The upshot of this is that if you take Clinton's vote margins in Pennsylvania, apply them to the demographics of Ohio, the latter would have been much closer."

In other words, maybe Obama is starting to figure out those working-class voters.

... "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton shouldn't share the Democratic presidential ticket unless they really want to. 'No, I don't think it's a good idea,' Pelosi said in an interview with CNN talk show host Larry King aired Thursday night. 'I think first of all the candidate, whoever he or she may be, should choose his or her own vice presidential candidate,' said Pelosi, who will chair the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August. 'I think that's appropriate. That's where you would see the comfort level on not only how to run, but how to govern the country.'"

... Cheer up, Democrats!

"As Jonathan Cohn recently pointed out, the fact that Obama is running even or slightly ahead of McCain in the polls after enduring weeks of relentless pounding from Hillary Clinton is itself rather remarkable and speaks to the underlying realities of the 2008 election. And once the Democratic nomination is settled and the party unites behind its nominee, those realities should become readily apparent, even to the Washington pundits. According to every known leading indicator, 2008 should be a very good year for Democratic candidates at all levels."

Of course, there's also a chance that 2008 is a good for Dems in statehouses, governors' mansions and Congress -- but not in the White House.

Obama-rama

We assume this is tongue-in-cheek:

"It is time for Barack Obama to drop out. If Clinton had the good of the Democratic Party in mind, she would have given up her bid the day after the Mississippi primary, which Obama won by 25 points. The delegate math was as dismal for her campaign then as it is now, even after Pennsylvania, and she was facing down a six-week gulf before the next election. But Hillary Clinton isn't going to drop out. There simply isn't a function in her assembly code for throwing in the towel. Obama, on the other hand, is fully capable of it. And if he's really serious about representing a new kind of politics, now is the time for him to prove it in the only meaningful way left. Moreover, were he to play it right, dropping out now nearly guarantees that he'll be elected president in 2012.

"Here's the roadmap: Obama drops out next week, stating that although he could almost certainly win the nomination by fighting it out until the convention in August, he is simply not willing to drag the party through a battle that will cripple its chances against John McCain. He then pledges to help support Sen. Clinton in her bid -- with full knowledge that she will not take him up on the offer. In one stroke, Obama will regain his messiah creds by making the ultimate sacrifice for the good of the party. His followers will be furious. The mere mention of Clinton's name will provoke unspeakable acts. They will abandon Clinton in numbers sufficient to hand McCain the election in November."

Magic 8 balls says -- outlook not good.

... Howard Kurtz can't fathom why the Rev. Wright won't just sew his pie hole shut until November:

"Just when the Jeremiah Wright furor seemed to be dying down, the ex-pastor is back and suddenly inescapable. On the tube with Bill Moyers. Speaking to the NAACP. Showing up Monday at the National Press Club. There it was yesterday, that endless loop of Wright shouting 'God damn America' over and over. Yet another opportunity to talk about how he thinks the US of KKK-A created the AIDS virus to kill blacks. This is rather amazing. At great political risk to himself, Obama refused to disavow Wright even as he tried to distance himself from the reverend's more inflammatory rhetoric. Wright might have repaid the favor to the man whose wedding he handled by laying low, at least until November. Instead, Wright is mounting a media blitz that he has to know -- has to know -- is going to damage the most famous member of his former church. No matter how reasonable he sounds, he just reignites the controversy and throws his friend under the bus."

... "After 30 years of railing for separation of church and state, Bill Moyers comes to the aid of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright."

Hill and Bill

Is Hillary a "fighter"? Or is she just obsessed with winning? And is she so obsessed that she would consider staying in the race even after losing the Democratic nomination?

"Or so all the political experts take for granted [that she'd drop out]. Most probably, they are right. But they've overlooked one alternative possibility. One way does exist for Clinton to continue to run even after losing the Democratic nomination. She could run as an Independent. Not likely, of course. But not impossible. This thought first occurred to me while watching a clip of Clinton being interviewed on TV the morning after her Pennsylvania victory. She was, I realized, totally consumed and utterly obsessed by the contest she's now engaged in. Political contests do of course send an addictive surge of adrenaline through almost all of those engaged in them. But fighting to become president has become Clinton's entire life, her very reason for existing. A day later I came upon a blog by an American political commentator, Andrew Sullivan, that eloquently expressed my own thoughts. Clinton can't win the Democratic nomination, he wrote, 'But she won't leave. She will never leave.'"

Such loveley place, such a lovely face.

... Will Hillary get the Tarheel debate she wants so badly?

"Clinton continued pressing Obama for a debate here this morning, saying that each state has a unique set of issues that deserve discussion. Clinton, joined outside a fire house near Camp Lejune by retired military leaders, told several hundred supporters that she was happy the campaign has continued in North Carolina, because there is 'no better place to be in the springtime.'"

Paris maybe? Just putting it out there.

The other side of the ticket

I against the tax cut before I was for it:

"On May 26, 2001, after then-Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee (R.I.) cast his vote against President Bush's $1.35 trillion tax cut, he trudged back to his office, convinced, he recalled, that he had been the lone Republican to oppose the largest tax cut in two decades. But Chafee's staff told him that one other Republican, who had largely avoided the grueling efforts at compromise, had joined him in dissent. That senator, John McCain, was marching to his own beat, Chafee said, impervious to pressure from either side. Now that he is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, however, McCain is marching straight down the party line. The economic package he has laid out embraces many of the tax policies he once decried: extending Bush's tax cuts he voted against, offering investment tax breaks he once believed would have little economic benefit and granting the long-held wishes of tax lobbyists he has often mocked."

Also known, in the Republican parlance, as a flip-flop. Though we have this sneaking suspicion that the GOP will say: flip-flop? What flip-flop? This is merely an example of a man's evolving political philosophy. Of a man who is thoughtful enough to reconsider an issue and change his mind. Oh, here we go:

"Said J.D. Foster, a former Bush White House and Treasury tax policy expert, now at the Heritage Foundation: 'It's logical that he wouldn't be repeating the arguments he made then. We all learn from experience.'"

Ciao. It's been real.

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April 24, 2008

The day after the day after

Hillary gets a campaign-saving infusion of cash following her victory in Pennsylvania:

"Hillary Rodham Clinton raised $10 million in the 24 hours after winning the Pennsylvania primary, aided by contributions from 80,000 new donors, her campaign said Thursday. The $10 million came from a total of 100,000 donors, spokesman Mo Elleithee said."

That's a lot of bread. Don't go blowing it on the pony races now.

... Will Pennsylvania's six remaining uncommitted superdelegates tilt for Clinton, or Obama?

... Whomever the superdelegates support, party leaders may force them to make up their mind in the next two months, to avoid the spectacle of a brokered convention:

"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday that he may try to force undecided superdelegates to make their decisions in the Democratic presidential race if it stretches into June. Reid said he would consider writing a joint letter with Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) demanding that superdelegates make their endorsements public. 'The three of us, we may write a joint letter [to superdelegates],' said Reid. 'We might do individual letters.'"

We might use office stationary, or we might pick up something more decorative from Hallmark. So many options!

... A few weeks ago, media critics said journalists were perpetuating a sham of a race since, mathematically, there was almost no way Hillary could win this thing without destroying the party. But now?

The door is ajar, just a bit, says The Fix:

"The overarching question facing party activists and elected officials (read: superdelegates) over the next five weeks is whether or not Clinton has a legitimate and plausible path to the nomination. The answer to that question is clearly: Yes. To be clear: The most likely scenario is that Obama's lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote continues as the two Democrats split up the remaining nine contests. But a path does exist for Clinton."

To take a walk down that path, click here.

... Did Hillary's PA win vault her into the popular vote lead? Kind of -- if you count her votes in Florida and Michigan, where Obama's name had been taken off the ballot:

"Sen. Hillary Clinton is arguing that she is ahead of rival Sen. Barack Obama when it comes to the popular vote. [Not] so fast, says Obama's campaign. Clinton's count includes her wins in Michigan and Florida, but the Democratic presidential candidates agreed not to campaign in those states because they violated party rules by scheduling their contests too early. Obama didn't even have his name on the Michigan ballot, so he received no votes from that contest. 'We think that, in the end, if we end up having won twice as many states and having the most votes, then we should be the nominee,' Obama said. If Michigan and Florida are counted, Clinton is ahead by 100,000 votes -- 15.1 million to Obama's 15 million. Without those states, Obama has a 500,000 vote lead, 14.4 million to 13.9 million."

Obama-rama

"Doug Wilder, the nation's first elected black governor, has both encouragement and a warning for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The encouragement is that Obama is approaching the race issue the right way, and the nation is ready to elect a black president. The warning is that it may not be as ready as polls suggest. 'Let's not kid ourselves again, the issue of race will not disappear; but I don't think it will predominate,' the former Virginia governor said in an interview at his office in Richmond, where he is now mayor. At the same time, he said, even if Obama is the nominee and heads into the fall with an apparent lead, the election 'will be closer than any polls will suggest.' [In] 1989, Wilder won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in the overwhelmingly white onetime cradle of the Confederacy. Polls taken just before Election Day had put him ahead of his Republican competitor by as much as 10 percentage points; he won by less than half a percentage point."

People say one thing to pollsters, do another thing in the privacy of the voting booth. So does the "Bradley effect" really exist? That is, are white folk trigger-shy about voting for a black person, even after they've told a pollster that they were going to? Is it because they don't want to look racist? Because it's the PC thing?

"Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama's experience, the first African American with a serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter-century ago. In 1982, exit polls showed Bradley, who was black, ahead in the race for governor of California, but he ultimately lost to Republican George Deukmejian. Pollster John Zogby (who predicted Clinton's double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not: 'I think voters face-to-face are not willing to say they would oppose an African American candidate.' [If ]there really is a Bradley effect in 2008, Zogby sees November peril for Obama in blue states. John McCain could win not only in Pennsylvania but also in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and he can retain Ohio for the Republicans."

RedState explores the same issue here.

... when is a 10-point win not a 10-point win? When it's more like 9 points, says Chris Schultz:

"Since when does 9.2 equal 10 points??!! I just listened to Jon Delano and Marty Griffin discussing Hillary Clinton "cleaning Obama's clock" in yesterday's Pennsylvania primary. My question to them - can we get some perspective here? Yes, Obama outspent Clinton by 3 to 1, but he had a 22 point deficit when he started to campaign here in PA a little over a month ago. Obama ended up losing by LESS than 10% in a state where Clinton had the support of the governor and his party establishment."

That statwide margin could shrink a bit more if the 40 districts in Philadelphia that still haven't submitted their election results tilt heavily for Obama. (In Allegheny County, he lost by 8.8 percentage points.)

... Hillary's victory here won't help much if Obama keeps rolling out a super delegate every other day:

"Oregon Rep. David Wu, one of Oregon's 12 Democratic superdelegates, announced Thursday that he'd back Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, citing Obama's stand against the Iraq war 'from the very beginning.'"

Bush v. McCain

I wonder if John McCain is on the wedding invite list?

"Speaking with CNN's Larry King Wednesday night, Jenna Bush said she hasn't decided yet who she will vote for in November. 'I don't know,' Jenna Bush, daughter of President and Mrs. Bush, said when asked if she will back McCain. 'Of course [I am open]. I mean, who isn't open to learning about the candidates and I'm sure that everybody's like that,' she added. Though the younger Bush conceded she has 'been too busy with books to really pay that much attention.' Meanwhile, mother Laura Bush was quick to affirm that she will be voting for the Republican candidate in the fall. The two appeared on the show to discuss Jenna Bush's upcoming wedding next month. '[It will be] outdoors, very small wedding, you know, very small, all relatives, our families, really, kind of big,' Jenna Bush said."

I guess Early Returns won't make the cut, either.

... Speaking of McCain, he wants to make a clean break from Bush on at least one issue -- Hurricane Katrina response.

"Senator John McCain took direct aim at the Bush administration on Thursday as he stood in the lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans, the area hardest hit by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and declared that 'never again will a disaster of this nature be handled in the terrible and disgraceful way that it was handled.'"

... McCain takes the high road (publicly) by saying: North Carolina -- tear down this wall!

I mean ad. Tear down this ad:

"Republican John McCain yesterday asked the North Carolina GOP not to run a television ad that brings up the former pastor of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. North Carolina Republican Party officials insisted the ad would run as planned despite McCain's request. The ad opens with a photo of Obama and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright together and a clip of Wright, whose incendiary comments about race have bedeviled Obama. 'He's just too extreme for North Carolina,' the narrator says in the 30-second spot. 'We asked them not to run it,' McCain told reporters traveling with him in Kentucky. 'I'm sending them an e-mail as we speak asking them to take it down.'"

... "Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is calling out John McCain on the controversial North Carolina GOP ad which, in one fell swoop, uses Barack Obama's controversial ex-minister, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, to try to sully two Democratic candidates in the state. Dean is framing McCain's suggestion that the North Carolina Republicans do not air the ad as a test of his leadership, basically saying that if he can't get party minions to take his advice, how can he run the country?"

Indeed. If you can't control your peanut butter, how can you control your life?

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April 23, 2008

The Blurghosphere reacts ...

Chris Briem, math man and graphics wizard, crunches the numbers from last night; Undemocracy in America wonders if Hillary's proposal to "obliterate" Iran will gain a toehold in the right-wing blogosphere; The Unseen Blogger says Pennsylvania's results didn't amount to a hill of beans; Highbrid Nation says Hillary is practically begging for pennies at this point; Multi Medium says the shot clock is running out for Hillary; MacYapper says Tuesday was a great night for cable television; Pittsburgh Hoagie's Matt H. (a white guy) says he was called a traitor yesterday for wearing an Obama button; Pittsburgh Comet says Pat Buchanan is possibly high on meth (his words, not mine); Progress Pittsburgh breaks down the delegate count district by district; TWM says Barack is in a quandary:

"The Washington Post notes that Senator Obama -- who built his campaign on being different, took off the gloves in Pennsylvania, and now may have to keep them off -- faces a tough quandry. Which distinguishes his position, I suppose, from all of those easy quandries. And which also seems to split hairs on a bald man's head. If only because, by already -- and repeatedly -- removing the gloves, he has, to anyone with eyes and mind open enough to see, already compromised that alleged electoral integrity. He's no longer different, no longer the Breath of Fresh Air, Different Kind of Politician he and his supporters have always professed him to be. (Not, of course, that he ever really was that anyway, but...) He has, tough quandaries and manufactured media dilemmas aside, long ago crossed over to the dark side, and no amount of smiling or moralizing or speechifying can change that."

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April 23, 2008

Now what?

For one thing, no more Mr. Nice Guy, says Jonathan Weisman:

"Unable once again to score a knockout, Sen. Barack Obama is likely to make his new negative tone even more negative -- with a sharp eye on trying to end the Democratic presidential nomination fight after the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's victory yesterday in Pennsylvania has only accentuated the quandary that Obama faces: Stay negative and he risks undermining the premise of his candidacy. Stay aloof and he underscores Clinton's argument that he will not be able to beat a 'Republican attack machine' sure to greet him this summer ... Obama himself took up the cudgel after Clinton delivered a victory speech in Philadelphia devoid of attack lines. Without naming Clinton, he suggested in Evansville, Ind., that she is a captive to the oil, pharmaceutical and insurance lobbies, that she 'says and does whatever it takes to win the next election,' and that she exploits division for political gain."

You call that a cudgel? That's barely even a switch.

... "Hillary Clinton scored a big victory in Pennsylvania on Tuesday to keep her hopes for the Democratic nomination alive. The question is whether the win came soon enough ... It's doubtful that Clinton can overtake Obama in North Carolina; he has won all the southern states and their large black populations except for Arkansas, where Clinton was first lady when Bill Clinton was governor. But part of the reason the Clintons will campaign in North Carolina is to make it necessary for Obama to spend more time there and away from Indiana, where polls show a tight race."

... Of course, the opposite might be true, too:

"Obama has forced Clinton to chase him with spending, forcing her hand early by eroding her leads in public opinion polls. Clinton once led in Indiana, but Obama now holds a narrow edge in some polls. Depending on how well she can parlay Tuesday's victory into cash, some Democratic Party strategists believe Clinton may have to shift her money out of North Carolina and into Indiana in hopes of staving off two losses in one day."

Our prediction -- she spends money in North Carolina early to keep Team Obama honest, then dumps everything into Indiana in the final days.

... In either event, Hoosier fans best brace themselves for an onslaught of ads and visits:

"Presidential politics hasn't been this intense in Indiana since 1968. Indiana, he said, will be getting a taste of what New Hampshire, which holds the nation's first primary, experiences every four years. There, folks take it for granted that they'll be able to judge the candidates in person ... Clinton and Obama have been in Indiana a lot already. Counting today's visit, Clinton will have made 15 stops in 12 cities. And the entire Clinton family -- including former President Bill Clinton and daughter Chelsea -- will have made 50 campaign stops in the state. Obama and his wife, Michelle, have made 14 stops in 14 Indiana cities so far."

Well played, Gov. Rendell

It's your classic win-win situation for the governor, supposing he has national ambitions:

"Sometime last week, Gov. Rendell spoke his one millionth word on television for U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton. She carried his state last night. But suppose U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is the party nominee. Is Ed screwed? Are his hopes for serving in a presidential cabinet some day lost? Probably not, for a few reasons. First, if Obama is the nominee, Rendell will still be governor of a key state, and he'll have his chance to win Barack's heart with all the frenetic fundraising, press-spinning and barnstorming he's known for. Second, insiders say that Rendell will likely become chairman of the bipartisan National Governors Association later this year, making him a player in Washington no matter who wins the presidency."

Hill and Bill

The New York Times sees a Pyrrhic victory, given that what once was a 20 point lead was halved in a matter of weeks:

"The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it. Voters are getting tired of it; it is demeaning the political process; and it does not work. It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election ... Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race. It is true that Senator Barack Obama outspent her 2-to-1. But Mrs. Clinton and her advisers should mainly blame themselves, because, as the political operatives say, they went heavily negative and ended up squandering a good part of what was once a 20-point lead."

... So you're saying you're a fighter?

"Indeed, in her victory speech in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, Mrs. Clinton used the words 'fight,' 'fighter' and 'fighting' repeatedly -- not only to promise financially struggling Americans that she would protect them, but also to convey that she had the resolve and confidence to stay in the race."

Obama-rama

Hillary "needed" to win big in Pennsylvania. Does Barack "need" to win big in North Carolina?

"Not so long ago, Harold Ford Jr. was the rising black politician within Democratic ranks. Now he heads an arm of the party that seeks to keep its focus on middle America and crafting centrist messages: the Democratic Leadership Council. Often vilified by liberal activists, the DLC sees itself as quintessentially practical. From that perspective, and in the wake of Hillary Clinton's win in the Pennsylvania primary, Ford just set a political bar for the black politician that surpassed him in prominence. 'You have to win Indiana,' Ford told Barack Obama (via an interview on MSNBC). And, Ford added, Obama has to 'steamroll' Clinton in the other state with a primary two Tuesdays from now, North Carolina. The Obama camp will not publicly embrace that equation. But for him to truly regain the momentum he captured during his February surge, most party pros will see Ford's formulation as spot-on."

Here's the video.

... The latest spin from Obama HQ:

"In a conference call with reporters this morning, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe argued that Clinton's win in Pennsylvania yesterday doesn't change the current trajectory of the race: -- Obama leads among pledged delegates, and Clinton will have to win about 70% of the remaining ones to overtake Obama on this measure. -- to get within 100 pledged delegates of Obama, Clinton will have to win 57% of the remaining ones -- and when looking at the total delegate score (pledged delegates and superdelegates), Obama is about 300 away from clinching the nomination; Clinton, according to NBC's count, is more than 430 delegates away."

Congratulations, Pennsylvania ...

On setting a new primary voting record, says Capitolwire.com:

"State turnout record broken by almost 50 percent, as 700,000 more cast votes Tuesday than in any other Pa. primary. The Pennsylvania record for primary turnout was set in 1980, at 1.53 million. It stood for 28 years, and then got broken into tiny little bits."

... Voters helped Hillary not only close the delegate gap, but also Obama's lead in the popular vote.

More to come.

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April 22, 2008

The Big Night

UPDATE: 11:36 p.m.

Last word tonight goes to Sen. Obama, and his concession speech:

"We can build on the movement we've started in this campaign -- a movement that's united Democrats, Independents, and Republicans; a movement of young and old, rich and poor; white, black, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American. Because one thing I know from traveling to forty-six states this campaign season is that we're not as divided as our politics suggests. We may have different stories and different backgrounds, but we hold common hopes for the future of this country ... Millions of Americans who believe we can do better -- that we must do better -- have put us in a position to bring about real change. Now it's up to you, Indiana. You can decide whether we're going to travel the same worn path, or whether we chart a new course that offers real hope for the future.

On to Indiana, then. This is Early Returns, signing off.

UPDATE: 11:30 p.m.

If Obama was to have any chance of an upset tonight, he needed the Philly suburbs:

"Contrary to the conventional wisdom going into tonight, Obama is actually losing a lot of those relatively affluent suburban counties. He's losing Bucks County -- semi-suburban, semi-exurban -- 64-36 with 50 percent of the vote counted. And they're basically even in affluent, educated, straight-up suburban Montgomery County with about 40 percent of the vote counted. The votes are in in suburban/exurban Berks County--a place Rendell won handily in that 2002 primary--and Hillary has won overwhelmingly there, 58-42. Something happened in these area, and I'm not sure what it was. Obama should have done better on the basis of raw demographics. It could be lots of affluent, educated women crossing over to vote for Hillary, it could be those last-minute abortion calls/mailings I heard rumors of yesterday. But something happened that allowed Hillary to chip into Obama's coalition."

UPDATE: 11:26 p.m.

Is John McCain licking his chops after looking at the exit polls?

"Republican National Committee spokeswoman Blair Latoff wasted no time pointing out tonight that according to exit polls, both Clinton and Obama would lose Democratic voters to John McCain in a general election. Clinton would get 80 percent of Democrats to McCain's 11 percent, while Obama would fare slightly worse, 72 percent to 15 percent. Add the numbers up and the remaining portion of voters would ostensibly stay home, according to exit polls analyzed by The Politico website."

UPDATE: 11:22 p.m.

Some up-to-the-minute delegate math:

"NBC News has allocated so far a 75-65 split for Clinton out of Pennsylvania; 18 delegates are not allocated yet. With that, Obama now leads by 156 pledged delegates: 1,482-1,326. Our superdelegate total is Clinton 262, Obama 237. Overall, Obama now leads by 131: 1,719-1,588."

UPDATE: 11:18 p.m.

Said Hillary in her victory speech:

"You know, for me, the victory we share tonight is deeply personal. It was here in Pennsylvania where my grandfather started work as a boy in the lace mills and ended up as a supervisor five decades later. It was here where my father attended college and played football for Penn State. And I am back here tonight because of their hard work and sacrifice. And I only wish they could have lived to see this moment, because in this election I carry with me not just their dreams, but the dreams of people like them and like you all across our country, people"

UPDATE: 11:10 p.m.

Nearly 100 percent of Allegheny County's precincts are reporting. Looks like Robert McCord will be the Democratic nominee for treasurer. Looks like Dom Costa will be the D nominee in the 21st state House District. Looks like Steve O'Donnell still has a lead on Beth Hafer for the right to take on Tim Murphy (he's leading in Washington, Allegheny and Westmoreland counties).

Looks like it's almost time to put this blog to bed for the night.

UPDATE: 11:02 p.m.

Has the Mighty Casey struck out? Or was he not so mighty to begin with?

"Practicing Pennsylvania Catholics (weekly massgoers, by the canonical definition) made up 17 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary. They went 71 to 28 percent for Hillary over Obama. Non-practicing Catholics made up 18 percent of the Democratic vote, and they went for Hillary 65 to 35 percent. Bob Casey was in charge of Obama's Catholic outreach."

A sickly silence falls upon the players of this game -- there is no joy in Obama-ville tonight.

UPDATE: 10:58 p.m.

A prediction from McClatchy Newspapers:

"Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania victory means that the Democratic Party's eventual nominee will be badly bruised and could have a tough time rallying the party in the fall. Clinton on Tuesday once again failed to do well among young and African-American voters, who are growing increasingly alienated from the New York senator. She won with some harsh tactics -- too harsh for a lot of Barack Obama supporters."

Will white Democrats vote for Obama in November? Will black Democrats return to the fold if Hillary pulls out a victory? Stay tuned ...

UPDATE: 10:54 p.m.

Some insta-punditry from Andrew Sullivan:

"Obama lost every cohort over 40; Clinton lost every cohort under 40. Race also affects the generations in turn: 67 percent of whites over 60 voted for Clinton - a massive 24 point advantage. Among the younger generation, there is much less racial polarization: under 30, whites split evenly. This is a fascinating result. It appears to me as the future struggling to overcome the past. On the process, I stick to my view that she needed double digits to have reason to stay in. Right now, she doesn't have it. But she won't leave. She will never leave. Ceding to someone younger is unthinkable to her. It's a form of death for her."

UPDATE: 10:50 p.m.

Yes, Obama has a huge money lead, but if Hillary can pick up a few million by the end of the week, how much will that mead matter?

"States that remain on the primary calendar after May 6 are relatively cheap media environments. That means Obama's money advantage could be blunted because there is only so much TV air time available in markets like Sioux Falls, S.D.; Billings, Mont.; and Louisville, Ky."

UPDATE: 10:47 p.m.

Edu-muh-cated folks vote for Obama:

"While Clinton has won the state of Pennsylvania, it appears she won't win it by as wide a margin as she did Ohio. One reason for this appears to be the fact that the Democratic electorate in Pennsylvania includes more college-educated voters -- a voting bloc that has reliably supported Obama. In Ohio, only 38 percent of Democratic voters had a college degree -- in Pennsylvania, 46 percent did."

Elitist!

UPDATE: 10:42 p.m.

A big surprise out east, for anyone who follows state politics:

"Larry Farnese, a Center City lawyer who grew up in the suburbs, achieved a stunning victory yesterday, defeating South Philly born and bred power broker John J. Dougherty to become the Democratic candidate for State. Sen Vincent Fumo's seat. With 95 percent of the vote counted, Farnese had 43 percent of the vote to Dougherty's 38 percent. Anne Dicker trailed with 19 percent."

UPDATE: 10:37 p.m.

An LA shout-out to Pittsburgh's own Ron Paul, whose "respectable" (double-digits) showing may portend badly for Sen. John McCain come the fall, since so many Republicans are going out of their way to vote against him (and for Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee) even though he cinched this baby months ago:

"Rep. Ron Paul's revolutionaries continue to plug away. With 45% of Pennsylvania's 9,268 precincts reporting, Paul has captured 15% of the vote. He's easily beating former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has only 12%. Two things will moderate joy in the Paul camp. One, Huckabee suspended his campaign and stopped campaigning weeks ago. Yet, he's still getting 12%. And second, McCain is capturing 73% of the GOP vote. On the other hand, Paul will point out, McCain has already won the party's top ticket spot and yet is drawing only 3 out of 4 Republican ballots."

UPDATE: 10:25 p.m.

Allegheny County's 10 p.m. report is in, and 95 percent of precincts are reporting. Obama closed the gap a bit here, now trailing 54-44 in the county; in the 21st state House district, Dom Costa is leading Len Bodack and Brenda Frazier by a hair. No major surprises on the GOP side. See for yourselves here.

UPDATE: 10:19 p.m.

In Beaver County, state Rep. Sean Ramaley is ahead of Jason Petrella, but barely, 50.6 to 49, in a bid to replace retired state Sen. Gerald LaValle in the state's 47th senate district. In the 16th House district, which Ramaley is vacating in pursuit of the state Senate seat, former Ambridge Mayor Robert Matzie leads Donald J. Despines, 56-43.

Early on, the county's Dems are tilting almost 3-1 for Hillary.

UPDATE: 10:06 p.m.

Also from Politico:

"Hillary Clinton's fundraising is 'exploding,' says Clinton aide Phil Singer, with $500,000 in since the race was called. And the campaign is pushing hard, with a new fundraising email and constant mentions of the website. How much she raises tonight will be a key factor in her strength going forward."

Consider the source, people.

UPDATE: 10:02 p.m.

Yeah, it's a long way until November, but it seems that a lot of Republican voters who bothered to show up today were just going through the motions:

The exit poll of Pennsylvania Republican voters -- the hard core that shows up in a meaningless primary -- has only 73% voting for John McCain in November.

UPDATE: 9:58 p.m.

The Allegheny County election site says Obama is trailing Hillary badly in Allegheny County. With 71 percent of precincts reporting, Obama is at 43 percent, Clinton at 56.

In other races, Steve O'Donnell has 47 percent to Beth Hafer's 40 percent for the honor to take on U.S. Rep Tim Murphy in the 18th Congressional District; state Reps. Jake Wheatley and Joe Preston are easily beating their primary opponents; Dan Deasy has a slight lead in the state's 27th House district; and Ron Paul is running a couple dozen points behind John McCain on the GOP side.

UPDATE: 9:47 p.m.

From Katharine Q. Seelye, who's watching the boob tube tonight:

"Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and longtime Clinton loyalist, just said on CNN: 'They couldn't put us away here, they couldn't put us away in Ohio, Texas, New Hampshire. We're not giving up anywhere. We're going to compete; there's nine contests yet to go. 700 delegates yet to be chosen. There's a long way to go in this nominating battle.'"

UPDATE: 9:42 p.m.

In Vegas, it doesn't necessarily help you if your team wins -- you gotta beat the spread. And Vegas seems to have set the spread at 10 points:

"Time was, you won an election and the news media pronounced you the winner. No more. This time, the media announced that you had to beat the point spread -- a point spread determined by, well, the media. 'If Clinton wins by more than 10 points,' decreed CNN's Bill Schneider, 'her campaign will have new momentum and she will soldier on.' At least 10 points, said Politico's Ken Vogel. 'Hillary Clinton needs to win by double digits,' he proposed. 'At least 10 percentage points,' the Los Angeles Times concurred, citing unnamed superdelegates. Foreigners wanted in on the game. Britain's Guardian newspaper said Clinton 'needs to win by a margin of 10 percent or more.' Dan Balz, The Post's magnanimous chief political writer, suggested alternatives. 'Some say Clinton needs to win by 10 points," he wrote. 'Others say eight points. Some say [anything] over five points would be a respectable victory.'"

UPDATE: 9:40 p.m.

From CNN:

"Camp Clinton, buoyed by its Pennsylvania victory, plans to take what worked here and take it on to Indiana and North Carolina. Spokesman Mo Elleithee held a gaggle with reporters a short time ago. He said that said heading into the May 6 contests, the campaign would continue to push the themes that Hillary Clinton is the most equipped to be commander-in-chief and to lead the economy into recovery. He said the campaign would continue to raise questions about Sen. Barack Obama's ability to beat Sen. John McCain in the fall. Elleithee said Obama has built-in advantages in both North Carolina and Indiana, which he dubbed a 'battleground.' Indiana's proximity to Illinois makes him a known entity in much of that state and North Carolina boasts a large African-American population."

UPDATE: 9:37 p.m.

How much did Obama's performance in last week's debate hurt him at the polls?

"Her clear support from white voters and women. Both groups constituted large majorities in Tuesday's primary, and both voted for Clinton handily. Whites made up over 80 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats. Clinton bested Obama among those voters by 20 points, 60 to 40 percent ... Another reason Clinton won? She beat Obama easily among late-deciders. Those voters who decided in the last three days went for the New York senator by a 15-point margin, 57 percent to 42 percent."

UPDATE: 9:32 p.m.

A few items from the Huffington Post:

"Chris Matthews started off the Pennsylvania primary coverage with a bang tonight. Shortly after 6, seated by co-anchor Keith Olbermann, Matthews called the primary, and thus his coverage tonight, basically moot. 'This contest is essentially over,' he proclaims to Keith. 'Barack Obama is going to win the most elected delegates.' He went on to say of the media, "Trying to keep this game going, we've created the delusion that somehow this race is still open.'

See the video here.

... Obama-Rendell '08?

"He's a Hillary supporter, and her most avid fan, and if he joined with Obama, it may be seen as a unity ticket. I know that Lawrence O'Donnell supports Obama running with another Clinton supporter, General Wesley Clark. While I like that idea, I don't feel that Obama needs his foreign policy credentials to be burnished. I believe the election will turn on the economy and domestic issues, and Governor Rendell is an asset in those areas. Rendell is the chief executive of a state that is considered critical, but not a sure thing, for Democrats come general election time. And it is obvious to anyone who has watched him on TV or seen him campaign that the Governor is a great campaigner. So, if I'm asked: Obama-Rendell in '08."

UPDATE: 9:22 p.m.

Exit polling says that Republicans-turned-Democrats favored Obama -- contradicting the theory that these voters, at Rush Limbaugh's urging, would "sabotage" the Democrat primary and vote for Hillary because they perceive her to be the weaker candidate in November (then again, maybe after watching the debate last week they now think Obama is the weaker candidate):

"One voter in 10 in today's Pennsylvania primary had changed political parties since the start of 2008 to be eligible to vote in the Democratic race between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. The contest was open only to registered Democrats. About half the party switchers had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated with either party or were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania. Most of those new Democrats were mobilized to come out for Obama, and they constituted nearly one-fifth of Obama's supporters, according to exit polling by The Associated Press. Even the former Republicans favored Obama over Clinton, largely invalidating rumors that Republicans would vote strategically in the Democratic primary in support of Clinton, hoping she would be easier to defeat in November."

UPDATE: 9:18 p.m.

Washington Post's Twitter feed says Hillary will make a victory speech within the hour.

UPDATE: 9:12 p.m.

So I guess it's time for second-guessing and post-game spin, right?

"Is she really any step closer to winning the Democratic nomination? Obama still has the pledged delegate lead and no matter the results of the remaining nine contests will likely change that fact when the primary season ends in early June. The Illinois senator also has a 5-1 cash advantage over Clinton's money-strapped campaign, giving him an even greater edge ahead of the May 6 primaries in North Carolina -- where he is the favorite -- and in Indiana, where the race appears more competitive ... So Clinton won Pennsylvania, but is that enough? Doesn't she need something even bigger than a big state? Maybe a nine-contest winning streak to close out the nominating season coupled with a round of stirring endorsements of Al Gore-like proportions?

UPDATE: 9:07 p.m.

For those who care about the undercard, Robert McCord has a slim and early lead on the Democratic side of the race for state treasurer.

UPDATE: 9:01 p.m.

The Associated Press called the ballgame at 8:58 p.m.:

Clinton wins Pennsylvania primary

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Hillary Rodham Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary Tuesday night, defeating Barack Obama and staving off elimination in a riveting race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

UPDATE: 8:53 p.m.

Fox News, in a banner headline on top of the site, is projecting Hillary Clinton as the winner. CBS does the same, and NBC has the story up:

"NBC News projected Tuesday night that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had won Pennsylvania's presidential primary, a victory that analysts said she had to have if she were to remain a credible candidate for the Democratic nomination."

UPDATE: 8:50 p.m.

Get out the vote for Obama! Get a free sandwich! No joke.

... Meanwhile, the same site says a bid to keep the polls in Philadelphia open until 10 p.m. has failed.

UPDATE: 8:45 p.m.

Your winner is ... Barack Obama. Because he has tons of cash. For Hillary, though, the question is: How big of a win is big enough to help her rake in a couple mil over the next few days?

"As polls close, here is one way to think about the margin of victory -- if Hillary Clinton wins. She has no money. More important than anything she'll do over the next few days, Clinton will try to use tonight's results to raise money through the net. (Notice the banner behind the stage at her victory party. It says HillaryClinton.com for a reason.) If the margin of victory is big enough to allow her campaign to raise two or three million dollars in 48 hours, then her supporters are convinced that she still has a shot. Her margin was big enough.If she can't raise money off of her margin, then her supporters are resigned to her defeat.She needs money to continue. If she runs out of money, she won't be able to continue."

Now that I think about it, she did mention HillaryClinton.com a couple of times during the debate last week, did she not?

UPDATE: 8:35 p.m.

Somewhere, Karl Rove is rubbing his hands with glee.

That somewhere is the set of Fox News:

"NBC News is declaring it 'too close to call.' CNN calls it a 'competitive race.' Fox News calls it 'close.' Chris Wallace, though, is willing to have Karl Rove speculate about how many delegates Clinton would get if she wins by 10 points. Both seem amused by the complications of the Democrats' system, which eschews the decisive nature of winner-take-all primaries. 'It's a disaster,' says Rove happily."

UPDATE: 8:30 p.m.

Colleague John Micek of The Morning Call files this dispatch from the Streets of Philadelphia:

"At the corner of Broad and Chestnut Streets, we met up with Obama backer Arnetta Reddy, 62, a grandmother of six, and self-described veteran of the civil rights battles of the 1960s. When we happened upon her, she was shouting slogans through an Obama sign she'd rolled into a cone. 'You want your factories to open back up? You'd better vote right the first time,' she shouted. 'Vote for someone who's been a perfect gentleman.'"

Wow. We've bypassed ridiculous speed and gone straight to ludicrous speed.

UPDATE: 8:23 p.m.

Some of Hillary's Pennsylvania supporters are realistic about her overall chances:

"According to the exit poll for the TV networks and the Associated Press, 54 percent said Obama, who is ahead in delegates and popular vote, will be the nominee and 43 percent said Hillary Clinton will win the nomination. The exit poll also found that 38 percent would be satisfied with either as the nominee, but a majority would only be satisfied if their candidate wins -- 32 percent for Clinton and 25 percent for Obama."

UPDATE: 8:12 p.m.

The polls are closed, and turnout was high:

"Officials said the turnout was shaping up to at least double the 26 percent recorded in the 2004 primary, and perhaps approach that of a general election, even though there is no presidential contest on the Republican side. 'It's a crazy day,' said Stacy Sterner, chief clerk in Lehigh County, who noted that one polling place had 100 people waiting to vote when it opened at 7 a.m. Eastern time. 'If I didn't know better,' she said, 'I would think it was November.'"

... What if Ed Rendell was off when he suggested last month that the color of Barack Obama's skin would cost him 5-7 percentage points in Pennsylvania?

" '[If] McCain runs against Barack Obama and the race vote is worth maybe 15 percent to McCain.' The man I was talking to is not a racist; he was just stating what he believes to be a fact: There is a percentage of the American electorate who will simply not vote for a black person no matter what his qualities or qualifications. How big is that percentage? An AP-Yahoo poll conducted April 2-14 found that 'about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black for president.' I don't know if 8 percent sounds high or low to you, but I was amazed that 8 percent of respondents were willing to admit this to a pollster. And I figure that the true figure is much higher. The same poll, by the way, found that 15 percent of voters think Obama is a Muslim. He is, in fact, a Christian. But thinking a person is a Muslim probably does not encourage you to vote for him in America today."

Hey hey, kids! It's primary election night, and Early Returns is the place to be, supposing you'd rather be inside surfing the Internet than outside enjoying the sun and the 70-degree temperatures, sipping a beer on the back porch or something.

Keep checking back throughout the night for updates.

... Drudge says early exit polls favor Hillary, but barely -- 52-48.

... Hold the phone -- NRO says it's the reverse, 52-47 Obama.

... Oh, there's something very important we forgot to tell you -- don't cross the streams!

I mean, Don't trust the exit polls!

"Obama almost always does well in the leaked, unweighted exit polls, and almost always does less well in the final results. For instance: In New Hampshire, the "first wave" showed Obama leading by 4; he lost by 3. On Super Tuesday, the "first wave" had Obama winning New Mexico by 6 (he lost by 1) and losing California by just 3 (actual margin: 8) ... On March 4, the 'second wave' showed Obama winning Vermont by 34 (actual margin: 21), Texas by 2 (lost by 4), Ohio by 2 (lost by 10), and tied in Rhode Island (lost by 18). Averaging all those numbers together -- and I recognize that this is very unscientific -- you get an average discrepancy of 7 to 8 points. That is to say, Obama generally does 7-8 points worse in the actual results than he did in the leaked, unweighted exit polls."

... Here are the early-wave exit polls. You can read them, as long as you promise not trust them, OK?

... No big surprise here -- newly registered Dems are breaking for Obama. According to the exit polls. Which we definitely do not trust. Grrr.

The expectations game

After hearing for weeks that Hillary needed to win big in order to put a dent in Obama's delegate lead, she now tells us:

"I don't think the margin matters ... A win is a win."

Come again? A win is a win? Is that so? The New York Times begs to differ:

"Mrs. Clinton's advisers, while confident of winning, were already moving this morning to blunt the attempts by Mr. Obama to discount any win that isn't less than big. That is an argument that is easier to sustain if her victory margin is, say, 8 percentage points, than if it drops below 5 percentage points, where the Clinton campaign may find fewer people are listening. More than that, though, while that argument might fend off a defection of superdelegates and calls for her to quit the race, a slim victory is not going to be of much help in the nuts-and-bolts struggle she faces in trying to dislodge Mr. Obama's lead."

... Meanwhile, Boston.com says "Clinton needs big win today":

"With its high numbers of older, female, and working-class voters among the 4 million registered Democrats, the Keystone State is tailor-made for Clinton, who focused yesterday on turning out her political base. Not only must she score an expected win, she must beat Barack Obama by a large enough margin to convince party leaders that she would be the stronger nominee in the fall."

... Let's do the math. Rather, let's let Pete DeCoursey of Capitolwire do the math. If the polling numbers hold true, an 8 percentage point win for Hillary "would give Clinton about a five-delegate lead among the delegates who will be apportioned by the statewide results. Adding in the congressional-district in the congressional-district-chosen delegates, that kind of 8-point or even 10- to 12-point victory by Clinton will at most pick her up about 15 delegates tomorrow, as her delegate victory range is somewhere between 80-75 over Obama."

Picking up 15, when you're down by 140-150 delegates, isn't going to help a lot much -- especially if she gives those delegates right back in Indiana or North Carolina:

"Trailing Mr. Obama overall in both the popular vote and in the competition for delegates, Mrs. Clinton's advisers said they were girding for a tough spring. The Indiana and North Carolina primaries are next up, two weeks from today, and Clinton advisers said that if Mrs. Clinton were to lose Indiana -- a state where she has campaigned steadily and has some endorsement advantages -- several advisers would urge her to quit the race."